Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.05 EPS

Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday. The industrial products company reported $0.29 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.34 by ($0.05), FiscalAI reports. The firm had revenue of $2.10 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $2.04 billion. Graphic Packaging had a net margin of 5.94% and a return on equity of 19.98%. The company’s quarterly revenue was up .4% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the company earned $0.59 EPS. Graphic Packaging updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.750-1.15 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Graphic Packaging’s conference call:

• New CEO Robbert Rietbroek has launched a comprehensive operational and portfolio review and established a Transformation Office to drive cost reductions, accountability, and faster commercialization across the business.
• Graphic Packaging expects $700–$800M of adjusted free cash flow in 2026, driven by inventory reductions, a drop in capital spending to about $450M, and operational improvements, and plans to use cash to pay down roughly $500M of debt en route to investment?grade by 2030.
• Near?term pressures persist from overcapacity in bleached paperboard and weak consumer demand: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA declined and 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to roughly $1.25–$1.5B (normalized $1.2–$1.4B) with Adjusted EPS of $0.75–$1.15, while production curtailments to cut inventory will weigh on near?term earnings.
• The Waco Greenfield mill is substantially complete and should improve cost competitiveness, but total project spend rose to about $1.67B (including ~$80M capitalized interest) and management is reviewing the cost overruns.
• Management is refocusing on disciplined, customer?centric organic growth and faster commercialization of innovations (e.g., PaceSetter Rainier, ProducePack, PaperSeal) to help restore volume growth and win share over time.

Graphic Packaging Stock Down 16.0%

GPK traded down $2.37 on Tuesday, reaching $12.41. 30,851,120 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 6,040,029. The company has a market cap of $3.66 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.30 and a beta of 0.62. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67, a current ratio of 1.54 and a quick ratio of 0.63. The stock’s 50 day moving average price is $15.40 and its 200-day moving average price is $18.18. Graphic Packaging has a 52-week low of $11.83 and a 52-week high of $28.19.

Graphic Packaging Announces Dividend

The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, January 7th. Investors of record on Monday, December 15th were issued a dividend of $0.11 per share. This represents a $0.44 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 3.5%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, December 15th. Graphic Packaging’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 25.88%.

Trending Headlines about Graphic Packaging

Here are the key news stories impacting Graphic Packaging this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue slightly beat expectations: sales came in at $2.10B vs. analyst estimates of $2.04B, showing modest top-line resilience. MarketBeat Q4 report
• Positive Sentiment: Management reaffirmed a 2026 adjusted free-cash-flow target of $700–$800M and reported the Waco project as substantially complete, supporting long?term cash generation. PR Newswire release
• Neutral Sentiment: Company initiated a comprehensive review of operations/footprint and a selective portfolio review — could indicate future cost actions or asset sales but outcomes are uncertain. PR Newswire release
• Neutral Sentiment: Full?year 2025 net sales were $8.6B (down from $8.8B in 2024), reflecting weak demand in parts of the year. PR Newswire release
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS missed by a wide margin: $0.29 reported vs. consensus ~$0.40 (and vs. $0.59 a year ago), driving near?term profit concerns. Zacks Q4 coverage
• Negative Sentiment: FY2026 EPS guidance was cut to $0.75–$1.15 versus consensus near $1.78 — a sizeable shortfall that is the main driver of the stock decline. PR Newswire release
• Negative Sentiment: Net income fell to $444M in 2025 from $658M in 2024, and Q4 net income also declined—underscoring margin pressure. PR Newswire release

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Graphic Packaging

A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of GPK. Shapiro Capital Management LLC grew its stake in Graphic Packaging by 22.2% in the third quarter. Shapiro Capital Management LLC now owns 5,333,922 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $104,385,000 after purchasing an additional 968,777 shares in the last quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. grew its stake in shares of Graphic Packaging by 6.4% in the 3rd quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. now owns 5,265,518 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $103,046,000 after buying an additional 318,360 shares in the last quarter. UBS Group AG grew its stake in shares of Graphic Packaging by 104.6% in the 3rd quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 4,033,955 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $78,944,000 after buying an additional 2,062,162 shares in the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE increased its holdings in Graphic Packaging by 18.3% in the third quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 3,637,081 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $71,178,000 after buying an additional 563,508 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Voloridge Investment Management LLC raised its position in Graphic Packaging by 286.9% during the third quarter. Voloridge Investment Management LLC now owns 2,202,372 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $43,100,000 after acquiring an additional 1,633,070 shares in the last quarter. 99.67% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Analyst Ratings Changes

Several brokerages have recently issued reports on GPK. Raymond James Financial cut shares of Graphic Packaging from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating in a research note on Friday, October 17th. Zacks Research cut Graphic Packaging from a “hold” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a report on Wednesday, January 14th. Wells Fargo & Company downgraded Graphic Packaging from an “equal weight” rating to an “underweight” rating and cut their price objective for the company from $18.00 to $12.00 in a research report on Tuesday, January 6th. Robert W. Baird cut Graphic Packaging from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. Finally, Citigroup reduced their target price on Graphic Packaging from $19.00 to $16.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday, January 6th. Eight investment analysts have rated the stock with a Hold rating and three have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Reduce” and an average target price of $18.38.

About Graphic Packaging

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a leading provider of sustainable paperboard packaging solutions, offering a broad portfolio of products designed for food, beverage and other consumer goods markets. The company specializes in the manufacture of containerboard, folding cartons and engineered fill materials, as well as beverage packaging systems including paperboard cups, carriers and related components.

Through a network of manufacturing facilities across North America, Europe and Latin America, Graphic Packaging serves a diverse customer base that includes major consumer packaged goods companies, quick-service restaurants and retail chains.