ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on its Jan. 28 conference call, with management pointing to improving market conditions tied to data center buildouts and AI-related infrastructure. CEO Christophe Fouquet said the stronger outlook is translating into additional capacity needs at advanced logic and DRAM customers and, in turn, rising demand across ASML’s portfolio, “especially in our EUV business.”
Fourth-quarter results and order intake
CFO Roger Dassen said fourth-quarter total net sales were EUR 9.7 billion, within guidance, with net system sales of EUR 7.6 billion. EUV system sales were EUR 3.6 billion (including two High NA systems), and non-EUV system sales were EUR 4.0 billion. By end market, system sales were driven by logic (70%) and memory (30%).
Net income in the quarter was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 29.2% of total net sales, and earnings per share were EUR 7.35. ASML ended the quarter with EUR 13.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. Free cash flow in Q4 was EUR 10.9 billion, which Dassen said was significantly higher than earlier quarters, with most of the cash arriving late in the quarter.
Order momentum was strong. Q4 net bookings were EUR 13.2 billion, including EUR 7.4 billion of EUV and EUR 5.8 billion of non-EUV. Bookings were 56% memory and 44% logic, which management described as a more balanced demand mix than in 2025.
Full-year 2025 performance and backlog
For 2025, ASML reported net sales of EUR 32.7 billion and gross margin of 52.8%. EUV system sales from 48 systems (including High NA) totaled EUR 11.6 billion, which management said was 39% higher than 2024. DUV system sales fell 6% year over year to EUR 12.0 billion, while metrology and inspection system sales rose 28% to EUR 825 million.
By segment, logic system revenue was EUR 16.1 billion (up 22%), memory system revenue was EUR 8.4 billion (down 2%), and installed base management was EUR 8.2 billion (up 26%). ASML ended 2025 with a backlog of about EUR 38.8 billion.
R&D spending increased to EUR 4.7 billion (about 14% of sales), and SG&A rose to EUR 1.3 billion (about 4%). Net income for the year was EUR 9.6 billion, or 29.4% of net sales, with EPS of EUR 24.73. Free cash flow for 2025 was EUR 11.0 billion.
2026 guidance and key swing factors
Dassen guided first-quarter 2026 total net sales to EUR 8.2 billion to EUR 8.9 billion, with installed base management sales around EUR 2.4 billion and gross margin of 51% to 53%. He also guided Q1 R&D expense of about EUR 1.2 billion and SG&A of about EUR 0.3 billion.
For full-year 2026, ASML expects net sales of EUR 34 billion to EUR 39 billion and gross margin of 51% to 53%. Management repeatedly emphasized that the wide sales range is driven largely by customer readiness to take tools—particularly the pace of fab completion and cleanroom availability—along with ASML’s own execution and supply chain alignment. Fouquet and Dassen also said the second half of 2026 is expected to be stronger than the first half as customer fab readiness improves and ASML’s EUV “move rate” ramps quarter by quarter.
On China, Fouquet said the company expects the region’s share of 2026 net sales to be “in line with our current system backlog,” around 20%. Dassen later added that China’s revenue share is assumed across the guidance corridor, implying it would scale with total sales within the range.
Drivers: AI-led demand, EUV intensity, DRAM adoption, and High NA
Fouquet said ASML has seen “a notable increase and acceleration of capacity expansion planning across a large majority of our customer base.” He cited several drivers:
- Advanced logic customers migrating AI accelerators from 4nm to more litho-intensive 3nm and continuing to ramp 2nm.
- Memory customers reporting very strong demand for HBM and DDR, with supply “very tight through at least 2026,” as they ramp 1B and 1C nodes.
- More EUV layers in DRAM as customers shift from multi-patterning DUV to single-expose EUV, raising lithography intensity.
Management said it expects EUV revenue to rise significantly in 2026, while non-EUV revenue is expected to be similar to 2025. Fouquet also said metrology and inspection are expected to grow significantly as customers invest in process control, and installed base management should see another year of growth driven by EUV service revenue and performance upgrades.
On technology, Fouquet highlighted the ramp of the NXE:3800E and said its productivity gains support broader replacement of complex multi-patterning with single-expose EUV, including for multiple DRAM layers. He also said lithography intensity is expected to increase as customers migrate from 6F² to 4F² architectures. Addressing concerns about a potential “cliff” in DRAM EUV demand with 4F², Fouquet said customers “don’t like cliff” and that 4F² structures require more advanced lithography, adding that ASML is “very confident that… litho intensity will grow with 4F², both on Deep UV and EUV.”
On High NA, Fouquet said customers are making good progress in qualification in R&D facilities, and noted Intel’s recent announcement of the qualification and acceptance of an EXE:5200B system intended for high-volume manufacturing at leading-edge nodes. Management said qualification and data collection are expected to last most of 2026, with potential new insertion order decisions in the second half of 2026 for 2027. Fouquet described the race between DRAM and logic adoption as “neck-to-neck.”
Capital return: dividends and a new buyback program
ASML said its second interim dividend over 2025 was EUR 1.60 per ordinary share, and it intends to declare a total 2025 dividend of EUR 7.50 per share, a 17% increase versus 2024. The EUR 1.60 interim dividend is payable on Feb. 18, 2026, and the company said it will propose a final dividend of EUR 2.70 per share to the annual general meeting.
ASML bought back about EUR 1.7 billion of shares in Q4, completing a program in December 2025 with EUR 7.6 billion repurchased out of an authorization of up to EUR 12 billion. Management said it returned EUR 8.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 via dividends and buybacks. The company also announced a new share repurchase program effective immediately through Dec. 31, 2028, for up to EUR 12 billion, including up to EUR 2 million intended to cover employee share plans, with the remainder to be canceled.
Looking further out, Fouquet reiterated long-term targets discussed at ASML’s 2024 Capital Markets Day, including an expected revenue opportunity of EUR 44 billion to EUR 60 billion with gross margin between 56% and 60% in 2030, citing a shift toward more advanced lithography products, increasing lithography intensity, and continued productivity improvements in Low NA alongside High NA adoption.
About ASML (NASDAQ:ASML)
ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is a Dutch company that develops, manufactures and services advanced photolithography systems used to produce semiconductor chips. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, ASML supplies capital equipment and associated software and services that enable semiconductor manufacturers to pattern the intricate circuits on silicon wafers. The company is widely recognized for its leadership in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography as well as its deep ultraviolet (DUV) platforms used across multiple process nodes.
ASML’s product portfolio includes EUV and DUV lithography machines, light sources, imaging optics and control software, together with spare parts, upgrades and field services.
