Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO) executives used a JPMorgan fireside chat to expand on the company’s updated long-term targets following an analyst day, outlining a five-year plan centered on store growth, e-commerce penetration gains, and improved productivity in the existing store base.
CEO Steve Lawrence said the company’s overarching growth strategy remains unchanged, but leadership has “refin[ed] the targets” after several years of customer research and new-store learnings. CFO Carl Ford added that the company is targeting modest operating margin expansion as it scales to a larger revenue base, with a capital allocation plan that splits cash flow between reinvestment and shareholder returns.
Updated five-year targets: stores, e-commerce, and comps
On unit growth, Lawrence said Academy now targets 125 new stores over the next five years, or roughly 25 per year. He described a mix shift versus prior emphasis on new markets: about 40% of openings are planned in legacy markets (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas), 40% in existing markets (states where Academy has been present for more than five years), and 20% in new markets.
For e-commerce, Lawrence said the company is around 12% penetration and is targeting roughly 15% penetration, which he framed as requiring the dot-com business to grow about 70% over five years. He said part of the plan includes assortment expansion via dropship, loyalty initiatives, and using AI to improve product imagery and item discovery for “agentic search.” Lawrence also described a “symbiotic” relationship between store growth and online growth, with about half of expected e-commerce gains tied to the expanded store footprint.
Lawrence said the company laid out a pathway to grow from about $6.1 billion in revenue to $8 billion over five years. He also noted the company forecasted first-quarter comparable sales up 2% to 3% and total sales up 6% to 7%.
Margin and earnings framework: targeting a 10% EBIT business
Ford said Academy ended fiscal 2025 with an EBIT rate of 9% and sees about 100 basis points of upside as the company scales, describing an ambition to become a 10% EBIT retailer at $8 billion in sales. He said the first driver is sales leverage, with guidance for fiscal 2026 implying modest SG&A leverage on a midpoint comp assumption.
Other margin levers Ford cited included supply chain benefits from infilling stores across the existing 21-state footprint and more efficient utilization of three distribution centers. He also said Academy expects about 30 basis points of benefit from launching a retail media network in fiscal 2026, describing it as a “profitability growth engine” over the next five years.
Ford also pointed to merchandise margin opportunities through higher private brand penetration, targeting an increase from about 22% to 25% over five years, and mix shift as soft goods (apparel and footwear) become a larger portion of sales. He added that some of the margin upside could be reinvested into price to support market share gains, consistent with Academy’s “everyday value” positioning.
In outlining a simplified “earnings algorithm,” Ford said investors should expect:
- ~5% sales CAGR over five years
- Low single-digit comparable sales
- High single-digit EPS growth, “bumping up against 10% per year”
Ford said operating cash flow has been running at roughly 7% to 8% of sales, with about half reinvested in growth initiatives and the remainder returned to shareholders through a “pretty modest dividend” and “outsized share repurchases” over the period.
Brand strategy and customer mix: “newness is broad-based”
Lawrence pushed back on the idea that Academy is primarily a male-driven retailer in slower-growth outdoor categories. He said that if hunting and fishing are excluded, the rest of the business “skew[s] more female than male.” He added that store layouts can create distinct shopping “destinations,” which can lead some customers to miss entire parts of the assortment.
He emphasized that Academy’s “newness” strategy extends beyond apparel and footwear, citing examples discussed at the analyst day including outdoor brands such as First Lite Camo, a plan to launch suppressors in firearms as a “non-comp opportunity,” work and western wear growth with brands such as BRUNT, and expansion of Ariat and Carhartt. In footwear, he cited initiatives including pursuing Birkenstock, launching Havaianas, and building premium running assortments across brands such as Adidas, Nike, New Balance, and Brooks.
Lawrence said the company aims to add customers without “abandon[ing]” existing ones, calling that a “quintessential mistake” in retail. He said Academy’s North Star remains value, including private brand pricing that he described as materially below a key competitor in certain categories.
Loyalty relaunch and external tailwinds
Lawrence said Academy is early in its loyalty journey and recently integrated a tender-agnostic loyalty program with its credit offering into a three-tier structure, including a new co-branded Mastercard option that offers rewards on spend outside Academy.
He also addressed potential near-term tailwinds, acknowledging that higher tax refunds could support demand and that warmer weather can help seasonal categories. He pointed to upcoming events including the World Cup, with “30 matches” expected within Academy’s footprint, and the 250th birthday of America as possible catalysts later in the year.
New store learnings: “inside out to outside in”
On store economics and site selection, Lawrence said the company refined assumptions after seeing performance vary by geography and brand awareness, with first stores in new markets performing closer to $12 million, legacy market openings closer to $16 million, and long-established non-legacy states around $14 million. He also said Academy has “value engineered” store formats, with some markets supporting 50,000 to 55,000 square feet rather than a 63,000 to 65,000 square foot target, helping reduce build costs.
Ford said total company four-wall EBITDA is “probably 20%,” with new-store returns varying by market type. He cited a 2.5-year payback in legacy markets and a blended average of about four years, while newer markets may run a 4- to 5-year payback as Academy builds awareness. Both executives noted newer real estate economics may limit the ability of new stores to reach the historical 20% four-wall EBITDA level.
Lawrence said a key learning has been focusing less on dense, high-income urban cores and more on outer suburbs and satellite markets where the company’s “Always Gamer” family customer is more prevalent—an “inside out to outside in” approach as Academy expands and infills new regions.
About Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO)
Academy Sports and Outdoors is a leading specialty retailer of sporting goods and outdoor gear, operating more than 260 stores across the United States. Headquartered in Katy, Texas, the company offers a broad assortment of merchandise spanning athletic footwear and apparel, team sports equipment, camping and outdoor recreation products, hunting and fishing supplies, and fitness accessories. In addition to its brick-and-mortar footprint, Academy serves customers through its e-commerce platform, offering online ordering, in-store pickup, and home delivery options.
The company’s product portfolio includes seasonal and year-round categories designed to meet the needs of both casual enthusiasts and serious athletes.
