Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) Issues Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.12 EPS

Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday. The company reported $0.34 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.46 by ($0.12), FiscalAI reports. The company had revenue of $7.58 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $7.63 billion. Smurfit Westrock had a net margin of 2.40% and a return on equity of 6.21%. Smurfit Westrock’s revenue was up .5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.28 earnings per share.

Here are the key takeaways from Smurfit Westrock’s conference call:

• Smurfit Westrock reported record-scale results with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA $1.172bn and FY Adjusted EBITDA $4.939bn, generated over $1.5bn of adjusted free cash flow for the year, reduced leverage to 2.6x, raised the dividend 5%, and received a Fitch upgrade to BBB+.
• North America faced pronounced headwinds — sharp volume declines, portfolio pruning (?1.2bn sqm of lost business), mill downtime that cost ~$85m in Q4 (~$220m for the year), and the announced La Tuque SBS closure — pressuring near-term utilization and earnings.
• The company unveiled a bottom-up medium-term plan targeting ~$7bn Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, about $14bn adjusted free cash flow (2026–2030), ~$13bn cumulative CapEx (focused on high-return projects), ~$5bn of dividends and share buybacks beginning 2027, and a path toward ~2x leverage.
• Management is executing strategic commercial and operational changes — owner-operator model, shedding uneconomic contracts, experience centers and AI InnoTools for value-selling — and says roughly half the lost North American volume is already being replaced by higher?quality pipeline business to drive margin recovery.

Smurfit Westrock Price Performance

Smurfit Westrock stock traded up $1.08 during midday trading on Thursday, hitting $51.36. 10,952,895 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 6,394,858. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $40.61 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $41.21. Smurfit Westrock has a 52-week low of $32.73 and a 52-week high of $55.49. The company has a market cap of $26.83 billion, a P/E ratio of 35.91 and a beta of 1.09. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72, a quick ratio of 0.97 and a current ratio of 1.48.

Smurfit Westrock Increases Dividend

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, March 18th. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, February 17th will be issued a $0.4523 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, February 17th. This is an increase from Smurfit Westrock’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.43. This represents a $1.81 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 3.5%. Smurfit Westrock’s payout ratio is currently 125.87%.

Key Headlines Impacting Smurfit Westrock

Here are the key news stories impacting Smurfit Westrock this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Management laid out a medium?term plan targeting $7 billion EBITDA by 2030 and emphasized portfolio optimization and North America margin expansion — a clear growth/efficiency message that supports higher long?term valuation. Smurfit Westrock outlines $7B EBITDA target by 2030
• Positive Sentiment: Company reported strong adjusted EBITDA ($1,172M) and robust operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow for FY?end, plus reaffirmed dividend — these cash metrics reduce execution risk and support buyback/dividend potential. Smurfit Westrock Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
• Neutral Sentiment: Earnings call transcripts and investor-update materials are available for deeper review; these provide detail on assumptions behind the 2030 target and near?term margin recovery plans (useful for modelling but not market-moving by themselves). Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Neutral Sentiment: Market commentary pieces (Wall Street outlook summaries) are circulating — helpful to gauge analyst tone and consensus revisions but secondary to the headline results and investor update. Smurfit Westrock Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 reported EPS of $0.34 missed consensus (~$0.45) and revenue ($7.58B) slightly missed estimates; North America weakness pressured results and sparked an immediate share decline after the release. Smurfit Westrock shares slide after Q4 earnings disappoint
• Negative Sentiment: Operational restructuring: announced closure of the La Tuque paper machine and Quebec extrusion plant — may involve one?time charges and reduces capacity, which can weigh on near?term results and investor sentiment. Smurfit Westrock to Shut La Tuque Paper Machine and Quebec Extrusion Plant
• Negative Sentiment: Multiple analyst recap pieces highlight the EPS/revenue misses and suggest potential near?term estimate cuts — downside risk if North America demand recovery proves slower than management expects. Smurfit Westrock Falls Short of Earnings & Sales Estimates in Q4

Analysts Set New Price Targets

A number of brokerages recently issued reports on SW. Royal Bank Of Canada lifted their price objective on shares of Smurfit Westrock from $51.00 to $57.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Thursday. Argus dropped their price objective on Smurfit Westrock from $55.00 to $45.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Tuesday, December 9th. Barclays reduced their price target on shares of Smurfit Westrock from $63.00 to $47.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, November 10th. Wells Fargo & Company lifted their price target on Smurfit Westrock from $48.00 to $55.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a research note on Thursday. Finally, Truist Financial set a $60.00 target price on Smurfit Westrock in a report on Thursday. Ten research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Smurfit Westrock currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $54.30.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Smurfit Westrock

A number of institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. CYBER HORNET ETFs LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Smurfit Westrock during the second quarter valued at approximately $29,000. McMillan Office Inc. purchased a new position in shares of Smurfit Westrock in the fourth quarter worth $35,000. MUFG Securities EMEA plc bought a new stake in Smurfit Westrock during the 2nd quarter valued at $63,000. Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. boosted its position in Smurfit Westrock by 181.9% during the 4th quarter. Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. now owns 2,658 shares of the company’s stock valued at $103,000 after buying an additional 1,715 shares during the period. Finally, Zions Bancorporation National Association UT boosted its position in Smurfit Westrock by 1,276.4% during the 4th quarter. Zions Bancorporation National Association UT now owns 3,441 shares of the company’s stock valued at $133,000 after buying an additional 3,191 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 83.38% of the company’s stock.

Smurfit Westrock Company Profile

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box.