Republic Services (NYSE:RSG) reported what management called “another strong year” in 2025, citing solid earnings growth, margin expansion, and continued investment in acquisitions, digital capabilities, and sustainability initiatives. The company’s leadership also provided its 2026 outlook, which incorporates recently closed acquisitions and assumes continued pricing strength amid a volume environment that remains pressured by softness in construction and manufacturing end markets.
Full-year 2025 results and operating highlights
Chief Executive Officer Jon Vander Ark said the company delivered 2025 revenue growth of 3.5% and “adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%,” alongside 90 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Republic posted adjusted earnings per share of $7.02 and generated $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Management said adjusted free cash flow conversion increased by 200 basis points to 45.8%.
Fourth-quarter trends: pricing strength offset by volume declines
CFO Brian DelGhiaccio said core price on total revenue was 5.8% in the fourth quarter, while core price on related revenue was 7.1% (including open market pricing of 8.7% and restricted pricing of 4.6%). By line of business, core price on related revenue included small container at 8.8%, large container at 7.4%, and residential at 6.7%.
Average yield was 3.7% on total revenue and 4.5% on related revenue in the quarter. Management attributed organic revenue growth to pricing, while volumes declined. Fourth-quarter volume reduced total revenue by 1% and related revenue by 1.2%, with declines concentrated in construction and manufacturing end markets and from continued shedding of underperforming residential contracts. DelGhiaccio said large container related volumes were down 3.8% and residential volumes declined 3%.
In Environmental Solutions, fourth-quarter revenue declined by $60 million year over year. DelGhiaccio said roughly $50 million of that decrease was tied to an emergency response project in 2024 that did not repeat.
Margins, recycling, and cash flow
Fourth-quarter total company adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 30 basis points to 31.3%. DelGhiaccio said margin expansion in the underlying business was 80 basis points, partially offset by headwinds of 10 basis points from net fuel, 20 basis points from recycled commodity prices, and 20 basis points from acquisitions.
For the full year, adjusted EBITDA margin was 32%, up 90 basis points versus the prior year. DelGhiaccio said the improvement was driven by margin expansion in the underlying business, while a 30 basis point margin benefit from wildfire and hurricane landfill volumes was “completely offset” by net fuel, recycled commodity prices, and acquisitions.
Recycling commodity prices averaged $112 per ton in the fourth quarter, down from $153 per ton in the prior year. Despite the price decline, recycling, processing, and commodity sales revenue was flat year over year, which management attributed to increased volumes at Polymer Centers and the reopening of a recycling center on the West Coast. Full-year 2025 commodity prices were $135 per ton versus $164 per ton in the prior year, and management said current commodity prices are approximately $115 per ton, which is the baseline in 2026 guidance.
Adjusted free cash flow for 2025 rose more than 11% to $2.43 billion, which DelGhiaccio attributed to EBITDA growth and cash tax benefits from “recently enacted federal tax law.” The company ended the year with total debt of $13.7 billion, total liquidity of $2 billion, and a leverage ratio of approximately 2.6x. Management expects net interest expense of $575 million to $585 million in 2026 based on current rates.
Capital allocation, acquisitions, and sustainability investments
Vander Ark said Republic invested $1.1 billion in acquisitions during 2025 and returned $1.6 billion to shareholders, including $854 million of share repurchases.
For 2026, management reiterated an expectation to invest approximately $1 billion in “value-creating acquisitions” and said the company had already invested over $400 million year to date. On the call, Vander Ark said the company acquired Hamm, described as “great disposal infrastructure” on the west side of Kansas City, and noted the broader pipeline is “predominantly recycling and waste” with additional Environmental Solutions opportunities. DelGhiaccio said the contribution from closed deals included in guidance adds about 70 basis points to 2026 growth.
Republic also highlighted progress in sustainability-related projects:
- Polymer Centers: Commercial production began at the Indianapolis Polymer Center in July, with commercial production at the co-located Indianapolis Blue Polymers facility starting in the fourth quarter. Management said Polymer Centers contributed about $45 million of revenue and about $10 million of incremental EBITDA in 2025. For 2026, the company expects about a $30 million revenue uplift and about $10 million of incremental EBITDA.
- Renewable natural gas (RNG): Three projects came online in the fourth quarter, and Republic commenced operations at nine RNG projects in 2025. Management expects four more RNG projects to be operating in 2026. Vander Ark said the company is seeing the financial contribution it expected as projects come online; DelGhiaccio said 2026 should see about $10 million of incremental revenue and $10 million of incremental EBITDA from these projects, with acceleration beyond 2026. DelGhiaccio also said that by the end of 2026, the company expects to be at about $40 million of incremental EBITDA contribution on a path to $120 million of incremental EBITDA at full run rate, noting EBITDA exceeds revenue contribution due to equity income in certain joint ventures.
- Fleet electrification: Republic ended 2025 with more than 180 electric collection vehicles and 32 commercial-scale EV charging facilities. Management expects to add another 150 electric collection trucks in 2026.
2026 outlook: pricing to outpace inflation, volumes expected to remain pressured
Republic guided to 2026 revenue of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion. The company expects adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion. At the midpoint, management said the outlook implies revenue growth of 3.1%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 3.6%, adjusted EPS growth of 3.1%, and adjusted free cash flow growth of 4.4%.
Management emphasized that 2025 benefited from landfill volumes related to wildfire and hurricane cleanup efforts, creating difficult comparisons in 2026. Vander Ark said that absent those non-recurring prior-year projects, the midpoint of 2026 guidance would imply nearly 4% top-line growth, more than 5% growth in adjusted EBITDA, 50 basis points of margin expansion, roughly 6% adjusted EPS growth, and 7% adjusted free cash flow growth.
DelGhiaccio said the company expects 2026 average yield on related revenue of 4% to 4.5% (equating to 3.2% to 3.7% on total revenue) and expects an inflationary environment around 3.5%. On volume, Republic expects organic volume to decrease total revenue by approximately 1% in 2026, including a 60 basis point headwind from lapping landfill cleanup volumes. Management also said residential volumes are expected to be negative across quarters and for the full year as the company continues shedding underperforming contracts.
On margins, DelGhiaccio said the midpoint implies about 20 basis points of expansion, including 60 to 70 basis points of improvement in the underlying business, offset by approximately 10 basis points of commodity-related drag, 10 basis points from acquisitions, and 30 basis points of drag from lapping higher-margin landfill volumes. He added that, due to comparisons, margin performance is expected to be “slightly positive” in the first three quarters and “most of the margin expansion” is expected in the fourth quarter.
In Environmental Solutions, management said revenue growth is expected to be relatively flat for the full year, with tougher comparisons in the first half and growth in the second half. Vander Ark also noted the longer sales cycle nature of the business and said emergency response activity can be lumpy, while adding that if emergency response returns, the company “could certainly run past the guide.”
About Republic Services (NYSE:RSG)
Republic Services, Inc is a leading provider of non-hazardous solid waste and recycling services in the United States. The company offers a broad range of waste management solutions to residential, commercial, industrial and municipal customers, positioning itself as a full-service partner for everyday waste collection as well as specialized disposal needs.
Republic’s core operations include curbside and commercial collection, transfer and hauling, materials recovery and recycling facilities, and landfill disposal.
