ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.21 EPS

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The energy producer reported $1.02 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.23 by ($0.21), Briefing.com reports. The company had revenue of $13.86 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $14.35 billion. ConocoPhillips had a return on equity of 13.64% and a net margin of 14.25%.The business’s revenue for the quarter was down 3.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the company earned $1.98 earnings per share.

Here are the key takeaways from ConocoPhillips’ conference call:

• ConocoPhillips said it delivered a strong 2025, outperforming guidance on CapEx, operating costs, and production, and successfully integrated Marathon Oil—doubling synergy capture and realizing about $1 billion of one?time benefits while still driving pro forma production growth.
• For 2026 management is targeting a combined ~$1 billion reduction in CapEx and operating costs, guiding to roughly $12B CapEx and $10.2B OpEx with modest production growth (2.23–2.26 mmboe/d) while continuing to return ~45% of CFO and grow the base dividend.
• Major projects and LNG progress underpin the multi?year cash plan—LNG offtake has grown to ~10 mtpa, projects are >80% complete with NFS expected to start in H2 and Willow ~50% complete (first oil early 2029), supporting management’s target of a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.
• The company emphasized a strong liquidity and capital returns profile—cash and short?term investments of $7.4B (plus $1.1B long?term liquid investments), nearly $2B net?debt reduction in 2025, $3B+ of asset sales toward a $5B divestiture target, and $9B returned to shareholders in 2025.
• Near?term risks remain as pre?productive CapEx (notably Willow) keeps current pre?dividend free cash flow breakeven in the mid?$40s (management expects it to fall to the low?$30s by 2030), and Q1 2026 production guidance incorporates estimated weather?related downtime from Winter Storm Fern.

ConocoPhillips Stock Performance

Shares of COP traded up $2.24 during mid-day trading on Friday, hitting $107.22. 2,265,657 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 9,089,187. The stock’s 50-day simple moving average is $96.12 and its 200-day simple moving average is $93.60. The firm has a market cap of $132.49 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.18 and a beta of 0.32. The company has a quick ratio of 1.18, a current ratio of 1.32 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35. ConocoPhillips has a 52 week low of $79.88 and a 52 week high of $108.43.

ConocoPhillips Dividend Announcement

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Monday, March 2nd. Shareholders of record on Wednesday, February 18th will be paid a $0.84 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, February 18th. This represents a $3.36 annualized dividend and a yield of 3.1%. ConocoPhillips’s payout ratio is 47.52%.

Key ConocoPhillips News

Here are the key news stories impacting ConocoPhillips this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Wells Fargo raised its price target to $133 and kept an overweight rating, signaling meaningful upside vs. recent levels and supporting buy-side interest. Wells Fargo PT raise
• Positive Sentiment: Company announced a quarterly dividend (record Feb. 18) that yields ~3.2%, which supports income-focused holders and reduces downside risk for some investors. (Company disclosure)
• Positive Sentiment: Management is targeting $1 billion of cost cuts / annual free cash flow growth through 2028 and plans to keep 2026 capex around $12B — a clear emphasis on cash conversion that bolsters long-term valuation case. Cost cuts & FCF guidance
• Positive Sentiment: CEO Ryan Lance says the company will shift focus from M&A toward organic growth and international expansion — a strategic stance that reduces integration risk and signals disciplined capital allocation. Organic growth focus
• Positive Sentiment: Some commentators view the Marathon deal and asset mix as improving COP’s long-term cash-flow profile, encouraging “smart money” accumulation despite the quarter’s misses. Marathon deal optimism
• Neutral Sentiment: JPMorgan lifted its price target to $103 but maintained a neutral rating, implying limited near-term upside from their view and signaling mixed analyst conviction. JPMorgan PT change
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst and op-ed pieces argue ConocoPhillips’ “cash-first” upstream strategy has merit, but these are thematic views that may play out over quarters rather than immediately. Cash-first investing analysis
• Neutral Sentiment: Unusual options activity and a recent 52-week high point to active trading interest; these are momentum signals but not fundamentals. Options activity
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 results showed non-GAAP EPS of $1.02 (miss) and a ~39% drop in net income to $1.4B; weaker realized oil prices offset higher production — a clear near-term earnings headwind. Earnings miss
• Negative Sentiment: Coverage from major outlets highlighted the profit miss and price pressure; that media narrative pressured the stock after the print and likely contributed to intraday volatility. Press coverage of miss

Insider Activity at ConocoPhillips

In related news, CEO Ryan Michael Lance sold 500,708 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Friday, December 19th. The stock was sold at an average price of $92.50, for a total transaction of $46,315,490.00. Following the sale, the chief executive officer owned 325,972 shares in the company, valued at $30,152,410. This represents a 60.57% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website. Also, Director William H. Mcraven acquired 5,768 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, November 10th. The shares were bought at an average cost of $86.68 per share, for a total transaction of $499,970.24. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 5,768 shares in the company, valued at approximately $499,970.24. This represents a ? increase in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this purchase are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders own 0.24% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Strive Asset Management LLC purchased a new position in shares of ConocoPhillips in the 3rd quarter valued at approximately $28,000. BNP Paribas bought a new position in ConocoPhillips during the 2nd quarter valued at about $33,000. Kelleher Financial Advisors purchased a new stake in ConocoPhillips in the third quarter worth approximately $57,000. WFA of San Diego LLC bought a new stake in shares of ConocoPhillips in the second quarter worth $86,000. Finally, Osterweis Capital Management Inc. purchased a new stake in shares of ConocoPhillips during the 2nd quarter valued at about $151,000. Institutional investors own 82.36% of the company’s stock.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of analysts have weighed in on the stock. Raymond James Financial increased their target price on shares of ConocoPhillips from $98.00 to $113.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Thursday, January 22nd. Royal Bank Of Canada boosted their target price on shares of ConocoPhillips from $113.00 to $118.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Monday, October 13th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. upped their price target on shares of ConocoPhillips from $98.00 to $103.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research note on Friday. Capital One Financial boosted their price target on ConocoPhillips from $111.00 to $116.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a research report on Tuesday, January 20th. Finally, BMO Capital Markets reissued an “outperform” rating and set a $115.00 price objective on shares of ConocoPhillips in a research report on Friday. Seventeen analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, six have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, ConocoPhillips has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $113.43.

About ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based international energy company focused on exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Formed in 2002 through the merger of Conoco Inc and Phillips Petroleum Company, the firm operates as an independent upstream company that explores for, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids across a portfolio of global assets.

The company’s activities span conventional and unconventional resources and include onshore and offshore operations in multiple regions around the world.