Evergy (NASDAQ:EVRG) used its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call to outline an updated long-term growth plan, anchored by newly executed electric service agreements (ESAs) tied to data center demand and an expanded capital investment program. Management also reviewed 2025 financial performance, which fell short of prior expectations due to weather and industrial load weakness, and provided details on 2026 earnings guidance, financing plans, and customer protections embedded in newly approved large-load tariffs.
Long-term outlook raised on data center ESAs
Chairman and CEO David Campbell said Evergy is raising its long-term adjusted EPS growth target to 6%–8%+ through 2030, starting from the company’s 2026 guidance midpoint of $4.24 per share. Campbell added that Evergy expects adjusted EPS growth to exceed 8% annually beginning in 2028 and continuing through 2030. CFO Bryan Buckler later noted the company currently expects 2027 EPS growth in the lower half of the 6%–8% range before accelerating.
Evergy’s forecast includes 1,300 MW of the new data center load in its 2030 retail load growth forecast, with the remainder ramping after 2030. Campbell and Buckler both said Evergy expects at least one additional ESA in 2026, but emphasized that potential upside is not included in the financial outlook or sales forecast presented on the call.
2025 results: weather and industrial demand weighed on performance
For full-year 2025, Buckler reported adjusted earnings of $894 million, or $3.83 per share, compared with $878 million, or $3.81 per share in 2024. He said Evergy’s 2025 adjusted EPS results fell short of the guidance provided on the third-quarter call, citing weaker-than-projected results in both residential and industrial demand.
Key year-over-year factors Buckler cited included:
- 0.3% growth in weather-normalized demand, primarily from the commercial class, adding $0.04 to EPS.
- Recovery of and return on regulated investments contributing $0.56 of EPS.
- Higher O&M, depreciation, and interest expense driving a $0.43 decrease in EPS.
- Other items negatively affecting EPS by $0.10.
- Dilution from convertible notes reducing EPS by $0.05.
Addressing weak industrial demand, Buckler described multiple 2025 headwinds, including major snowstorms early in the year, an outage at a large oil refinery, and what he called a “disappointing level” of industrial demand late in the year. He said the company has embedded the recent industrial load weakness into its 2026 model and adjusted load assumptions downward as part of its guidance framework.
2026 EPS bridge and load growth expectations
Evergy guided to a 2026 EPS midpoint of $4.24 and provided a walk from 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.83. Buckler said the company modeled a return to normal weather, which would add about $0.13 per share, and projected a $0.26 per share benefit from demand growth tied to a forecasted 3%–4% increase in weather-normalized retail sales.
He said the load growth in 2026 is expected to be driven by the continued ramp of the Panasonic advanced manufacturing facility and the ramp-up of data center customers under signed ESAs in the Metro and Missouri West jurisdictions. Buckler said Panasonic’s load began slower than hoped in 2025 but has increased in recent months, adding that a Panasonic executive has indicated plans to start two new production lines and reach roughly half of total capacity early in the year. Buckler said the company expects Panasonic’s 2026 load to fall within planning assumptions, but did not provide megawatt detail.
Beyond 2026, Buckler said Evergy expects consolidated retail load growth to accelerate, highlighting 3%–4% annual growth in 2026 and an average of about 7% per year from 2027 through 2030, supporting a ~6% retail load growth CAGR through 2030.
Large load tariffs and customer protections
Campbell emphasized the role of the Large Load Power Service (LLPS) tariffs approved in Kansas and Missouri in late 2025. He said the tariffs require new large customers to pay a premium demand rate while covering direct costs to serve them, which management said supports affordability for existing customers by spreading costs over a larger sales base and reducing future rate requests.
Management outlined several LLPS customer and shareholder protections discussed on the call:
- Premium demand pricing 15%–20% higher than existing industrial customers.
- Minimum term lengths and minimum monthly bills covering at least 80% of contracted capacity if usage falls short.
- Creditworthiness and collateral requirements.
- Termination fees designed to cover remaining minimum bills if a customer cancels or leaves early.
In the Q&A, management said the ESAs include year-by-year capacity schedules and that minimum bill provisions track those schedules. Buckler also said Evergy typically models the first couple of years of an ESA at the 80% minimum level as a conservative assumption, shifting to an expected-case approach in year three and beyond.
Asked about typical industrial pricing, management said rates vary by jurisdiction, but cited a typical range of 6–7 cents per kilowatt-hour (about $60–$70 per megawatt-hour), noting that LLPS pricing is a premium above that level.
Capital plan expands; financing includes equity and hybrids
Evergy reiterated that it invested $2.8 billion in 2025 to modernize the grid and replace aging equipment, and Campbell said reliability improved with the company’s strongest results for SAIDI. Looking forward, management increased its rolling five-year capital plan to approximately $21.6 billion from 2026 through 2030, a $4.1 billion increase. Buckler said higher generation investment accounts for roughly $3.4 billion of the increase, largely tied to new natural gas plant needs to serve growing demand and meet Southwest Power Pool reserve margin requirements.
Management said the plan is expected to drive 11.5% annualized rate base growth through 2030, up from a prior forecast of 8.5%. Buckler said Evergy intends to file rate cases aligned with the in-service timing of new generation projects.
On financing, Buckler said Evergy targets an FFO to debt ratio of approximately 14% through the forecast period, describing it as an average level that should become stronger in years four and five as cash flow rises. He also said Evergy’s 2025 FFO to debt was around 14% despite 2025’s weather and load weakness.
Evergy’s financing plan for 2026–2030 includes:
- $13.5 billion of cash flow from operations.
- $3.6 billion of dividends, with annual dividend growth expected to be below EPS growth and a payout ratio targeted at 50%–60% over time.
- $8.4 billion of incremental debt and hybrid securities, net of maturities, including $1 billion of equity credit from hybrids.
- Approximately $3.3 billion of common equity need from 2026–2030, with an annual expectation of $700 million–$900 million from 2026–2029 and no equity issuances assumed in 2030 under the current plan.
In response to analyst questions, Buckler said a common “rule of thumb” for incremental capital remains roughly 50/50 debt and equity over the long term, while noting the company plans to remain flexible, including the use of hybrids. Campbell added that for future pipeline opportunities beyond those already contracted, Evergy is open to “creative” approaches, including customer-provided capacity solutions and demand response, which are contemplated in the LLPS tariff.
About Evergy (NASDAQ:EVRG)
Evergy, Inc is a regulated electric utility that generates, transmits and distributes electricity to residential, commercial and industrial customers primarily across Kansas and western Missouri. The company provides core utility services including retail electric delivery, grid operations, customer service and outage restoration, operating under state regulatory frameworks. Evergy serves a mix of urban and rural communities, including portions of the Kansas City metropolitan area and other population centers in its service territory.
The company’s business activities span power generation, system planning, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and customer-facing programs such as energy efficiency and demand-side management.
