The Renewables Infrastructure Group (LON:TRIG) used its full-year 2025 results presentation to acknowledge a “difficult and frustrating” year, as low wind speeds, regulatory changes, and lower power price forecasts weighed on net asset value (NAV) and investor sentiment. Management and the board emphasized, however, that the portfolio’s cash flow resilience allowed the company to meet its dividend target and to continue executing on refinancing, disposals, and share buybacks.
2025 performance and sector headwinds
Chair Richard Morse said both share price and NAV performance fell short of the board’s expectations, with the persistent discount to NAV remaining a central focus. He pointed to two external challenges that affected the sector in 2025: low wind speeds and perceived policy headwinds stemming from UK consultations around REMA and changes to ROC and FIT indexation.
NAV, dividend coverage, and cash flow
TRIG reported a year-end NAV of 104 pence per share and cited macroeconomic factors, regulatory change, and low wind speeds as key drivers of the valuation decline. CFO Phil reported the portfolio value at year-end at roughly £2.9 billion.
On cash generation, management reported operating cash generation of £375 million, which was used in part to fund £192 million of project-level debt repayment. Gross cash cover of the dividend was cited at 2.1x, while net dividend cover after project-level debt repayments was 1.0x, which the company said was in line with expectations.
The board maintained the dividend at 7.55 pence per share, which management described as representing an 11% cash yield based on the current share price (and over a 7% yield on NAV). Management said it sees this dividend level as maintainable, with a path to resuming dividend growth in the medium term. The company also reiterated an expectation that net dividend cover improves to 1.1x in 2026 and 1.1–1.2x in future years.
Key drivers of valuation change
Management described reductions in power price forecasts across geographies as the largest driver of valuation movement in 2025, with particularly notable declines in Great Britain and Sweden, largely tied to lower gas prices in the near term. The company reiterated that it uses forecast curves from three providers, adjusts for renewables “cannibalization,” and takes an average of the curves.
Phil also outlined changes to discount rates, noting the overall portfolio weighted average discount rate increased by 0.4% during the year to 9.0%. The company increased discount rates for European assets by 0.3% in the first quarter, reflecting higher EU government bond yields, and increased discount rates for UK offshore wind farms by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, citing the availability of offshore wind investment opportunities and relative capital supply.
Regulatory items also affected NAV. The change to ROC and FIT indexation to CPI in the UK, effective April 2026, was said to have an adverse NAV impact of £14 million. The company said UK ROC and FIT revenues are a little less than 20% of projected revenues for 2026. The UK autumn 2025 budget changes to capital allowance rates and higher business rates for certain larger wind farms were said to have a £9 million adverse NAV impact, partially offset by a reduction in German corporation tax with a £4 million positive impact.
Capital allocation: buybacks, investment, and refinancing
Management said it has pivoted to a greater emphasis on shareholder returns given the weaker share price, with over 50% of available capital allocated to shareholder returns in 2025 and a similar allocation expected in 2026. The company said it has completed over half of its targeted £150 million share buyback program and will increase the pace of repurchases, with nearly 100 million shares bought back to date. Phil said share buybacks added 0.8 pence per share to NAV over the year.
Alongside buybacks, TRIG invested £116 million in 2025, largely supporting construction of the Ryton and Spennymoor battery projects in the UK and the repowering of the Cuxac wind farm in France. Management said it is seeing major construction projects with IRRs “in the teens,” while operational enhancements were described as well over 20% IRR, though smaller in scale.
On funding, the company reported raising £280 million of capital during the period and shortly thereafter, including £80 million from completing the sell-down of its Gode offshore wind farm stake and a £200 million private placement debt issuance in February 2026 (post year-end). The private placement was described as long-term, fixed-rate, and amortizing, and was used to term out roughly half of the revolving credit facility (RCF), reducing the RCF to around £200 million. TRIG said it expects to conclude the £150 million buyback program and to reduce the RCF balance further to between £100 million and £200 million, subject to the timing of disposals.
Operations, development pipeline, and outlook
Operationally, TRIG generated 5.4 terawatt hours of electricity in 2025, which the company said was enough to power the equivalent of 1.6 million homes and avoid 1.8 million tons of CO2. Generation was 7% below budget, which management attributed to a mix of factors:
- 2% due to weather variation
- 3% due to grid outages on third-party equipment (with Uddevalla in Sweden and Mid Hill in the UK highlighted)
- 1% related to aging assets ahead of repowering
- 1% due to economic curtailment, mainly in Sweden
Management said it is targeting £70 million of enhancement value across 2025 and 2026 and reported £32 million secured to date. The company also highlighted a 10-year fixed price arrangement signed with Virgin Media, describing it as evidence that corporates continue to value green power and long-term energy security.
TRIG also provided project updates. Ryton is expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2026, while Spennymoor is targeted for mid-2027. In France, Cuxac repowering was described as well progressed, with full operation targeted by the end of 2026. Separately, TRIG said the legal challenge affecting the Vannier wind farm resulted in environmental permit reinstatement being stopped; generation has been suspended, and a 0.3 pence per share provision was included in the NAV.
Looking into 2026, management said early-year trends had improved in some areas, citing good winds in the UK and good electricity prices in Sweden, though power prices in Iberia were described as “a little lower” following heavy rainfall. Phil added that, with normal weather and lower grid downtime, performance could improve, and said that absent disposals 2026 EBITDA could be in the range of £500 million to £550 million (compared with 2025 EBITDA of £459 million).
The company also noted upcoming investor milestones, including a Capital Markets Seminar in May and its first continuation vote in June. Richard said the board’s view is that “the best outcomes for shareholders are more likely to be focused on advancing the company than on a forced sell down of assets,” while emphasizing that narrowing the discount remains the board’s “prime focus.”
