Pembina Pipeline (NYSE:PBA) used a company update call to outline its long-term strategy and financial outlook through the end of the decade, emphasizing what CEO Scott Burrows described as a track record of execution and a growth plan tied to expanding market access and demand in Western Canada.
Management highlights “3Cs” strategy and 2030 growth target
Burrows said the company’s refreshed strategy is built around “capture, connect, and catalyze,” with the intent to grow its core franchise, extend its value chain, and develop new sources of demand where Pembina believes it has “structural advantages.” He pointed to what he described as improving fundamentals for Canadian energy, including increased export capacity, petrochemical demand, and data center-related power demand.
Operational foundation: safety, utilization, and capital discipline
COO Jaret Sprott said Pembina’s growth plan rests on three pillars: operational excellence, commercial success through volume capture, and disciplined project execution. On safety, he referenced reductions in metrics tied to serious injuries from 2022 through 2025. On utilization, he said Pembina has been able to safely exceed nameplate capacity in parts of its system when warranted by demand, citing more than 70,000 BOE/D of consolidated capacity created through optimization of three assets, with most of that capacity utilized.
On capital execution, Sprott said the company has sanctioned more than CAD 1 billion of new pipeline and facilities projects (net basis) since its 2024 Investor Day. He added that Pembina expects to deliver about CAD 2 billion of projects from 2024 through 2026 and said the portfolio is tracking “approximately 5% under budget.”
Cedar LNG update: fixed fees, structure, and timeline
Management provided an execution update on Cedar LNG, which Sprott described as moving from sanction to advanced construction with a focus on “safety, indigenous ownership, and execution certainty.” He said 2026 is expected to be the project’s highest spending year, that the project is about 50% spent and about 80% committed, and that it remains on time and on budget.
Sprott said Cedar’s key milestones include the vessel moving from dry dock to wet dock mid-year, “sail away” in 2028, and coming online in late 2028. He noted that roughly 70% of the project is structured under a fixed-price EPC arrangement. On economics, he said Pembina expects to generate $220 million per year in fixed fees from Cedar’s customers, with potential additional upside tied to volumes and commodity price participation. As an illustrative example, he said that if Cedar were in service “this year,” Pembina’s net share could generate $300 million of EBITDA through fixed fees and commodity participation, excluding incremental cargoes.
Sprott said the project is backed by ARC Resources, Ovintiv, and PETRONAS.
Development backlog: Greenlight, Yellowhead, and Heartland opportunities
Chief Marketing and Strategy Officer Chris Scherman discussed projects under development, focusing on Alberta Industrial Heartland and opportunities tied to petrochemicals and data center power demand. He highlighted Greenlight, a proposed 900-megawatt combined-cycle natural gas power facility being developed with partner Kineticor to serve data centers. Scherman said Pembina is not moving into “merchant power” and is seeking a long-term contracted infrastructure profile. He said the company is targeting a final investment decision in the second quarter of this year and an in-service date in 2030, and that it is working toward a 20-year agreement backed by an investment-grade counterparty.
Scherman also discussed the proposed Yellowhead extraction plant, which he said would support Pembina’s ethane commitments to Dow and increase C3+ volumes available to its Redwater complex and broader NGL system. He said Pembina has a 50,000 bbl/d ethane supply agreement with Dow. In response to a question later in the call, Scherman said he was “certainly optimistic” Yellowhead could reach FID in 2026.
Scherman added that Pembina is pursuing a separate “butane value enhancement” opportunity, though he said the company could not share specifics due to commercial sensitivities. CFO Cameron Goldade later said the contribution from that item would be “less than 10% or around 10% at most” of the projects-under-development grouping.
Financial framework: self-funded plan, leverage targets, and marketing outlook
Goldade said Pembina’s capital allocation priorities are balance sheet strength, the dividend, accretive growth capital, and then discretionary capital such as debt reduction, share repurchases, or incremental dividends. He said the company has maintained a BBB rating for 13 consecutive years and targets leverage of 3.5 to 4.25 times proportionally consolidated senior debt to EBITDA. He also cited a dividend track record of 4% compound annual growth over 25 years and said Pembina has never cut its dividend.
On funding, Goldade said Pembina expects to generate CAD 16.5 billion to CAD 18 billion in cash flow from operating activities from 2026 to 2030. After funding a growing dividend, he said the company expects roughly CAD 7 billion to CAD 8 billion available to invest—about CAD 1.5 billion per year on average—which he said aligns with “roughly CAD 7 billion of remaining capital to be invested” in sanctioned and under-development projects. He added that leverage would be below current levels “in all cases,” and said the company could also access incremental debt capacity of roughly CAD 3 billion within its leverage range to support opportunities that could move results toward the upper end of its growth target.
Goldade also discussed the marketing segment as “an important value-enhancing overlay,” while noting that it can be affected by market conditions. He said it was “premature” to formally reset 2026 marketing guidance due to uncertainty around the conflict in Iran, but said the forward curve had improved versus original guidance and Pembina had layered additional hedges. He said the company’s 2026 frac spread exposure is 65% hedged at a weighted average price of $35.41 per barrel.
In the Q&A, management addressed the relationship between Greenlight and a potential Alliance regional expansion. Scherman said the two FIDs are expected to be “proximate to each other, but not necessarily on exactly the same timeline,” and said Pembina sees opportunity for more than one phase of Greenlight. He added there is “lots of running room” on Alliance “at least through a few phases.”
Burrows closed by saying the company has “a durable core business, a differentiated integrated platform, a visible growth path, and a disciplined financial framework,” and reiterated that Pembina plans to execute the 3Cs strategy while maintaining its financial guardrails.
About Pembina Pipeline (NYSE:PBA)
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE: PBA) is a North American energy infrastructure company that develops, owns and operates midstream assets that transport, store and process hydrocarbons. Its core business focuses on the transportation of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensate, along with gas processing, fractionation, storage and related marketing services. Pembina serves producers, refiners and other energy companies by providing pipeline capacity, terminal services and midstream solutions that link upstream production to downstream markets and export facilities.
The company’s asset base is concentrated in Western Canada, including major operations in Alberta and British Columbia, and it also has operations and commercial activities that extend into the United States.
