Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.31 EPS

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The industrial products company reported $1.26 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.95 by $0.31, FiscalAI reports. Alcoa had a return on equity of 16.14% and a net margin of 9.12%.The business had revenue of $3.45 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $3.28 billion. During the same period last year, the company earned $1.04 EPS. Alcoa’s revenue for the quarter was down 1.1% compared to the same quarter last year.

Here are the key takeaways from Alcoa’s conference call:

• Strong Q4 operational and financial performance — record production at five smelters and one refinery, adjusted EBITDA of $546 million, adjusted EPS of $1.26, and cash of $1.6 billion.
• Material one?time items pulled down GAAP results, including a $144 million goodwill impairment in the alumina segment and a $70 million mark?to?market loss on Ma’aden shares (partially offset by a $133 million tax benefit).
• The San Ciprián restart is progressing (?65% capacity online at year?end and on track for completion in H1 2026) but will be a near?term drag — management expects combined smelter+refinery EBITDA loss of ~$75–100 million and free cash flow consumption of ~$100–130 million in 2026.
• Strong balance?sheet and capital discipline — full?year free cash flow of $594 million, ROE of 16.4%, and adjusted net debt reduced to ~$1.5 billion, with priority on remaining in that range and on debt repayment before expanding buybacks.
• Favorable aluminum market dynamics — rising LME and regional premiums (notably the Midwest), constrained supply/disruptions, and expected European CBAM uplift (management estimates ~$10/ton net benefit) should support pricing into 2026.

Alcoa Price Performance

AA stock opened at $62.28 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, a current ratio of 1.56 and a quick ratio of 0.91. Alcoa has a 1 year low of $21.53 and a 1 year high of $66.95. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $50.94 and a 200 day moving average of $39.35. The company has a market cap of $16.13 billion, a P/E ratio of 14.09, a PEG ratio of 0.26 and a beta of 1.95.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several research analysts recently commented on AA shares. UBS Group lifted their target price on shares of Alcoa from $42.00 to $48.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research note on Friday, December 12th. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Alcoa from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, November 25th. Argus set a $45.00 price objective on shares of Alcoa in a research note on Thursday, October 30th. Citigroup raised their target price on Alcoa from $42.00 to $54.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Friday, December 19th. Finally, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an “overweight” rating and set a $52.00 price target on shares of Alcoa in a research report on Monday, December 15th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, five have issued a Buy rating, five have issued a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, Alcoa presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $48.25.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Quadrant Capital Group LLC boosted its position in shares of Alcoa by 1.5% during the third quarter. Quadrant Capital Group LLC now owns 22,497 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $740,000 after purchasing an additional 324 shares in the last quarter. Captrust Financial Advisors lifted its position in Alcoa by 4.0% during the second quarter. Captrust Financial Advisors now owns 11,617 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $343,000 after buying an additional 452 shares during the period. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio boosted its holdings in shares of Alcoa by 0.6% during the 3rd quarter. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio now owns 80,723 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $2,655,000 after buying an additional 500 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of Alcoa by 91.9% in the 3rd quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,161 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $38,000 after buying an additional 556 shares during the period. Finally, California State Teachers Retirement System grew its position in shares of Alcoa by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter. California State Teachers Retirement System now owns 246,188 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $7,265,000 after buying an additional 712 shares during the period.

More Alcoa News

Here are the key news stories impacting Alcoa this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 beat on top and bottom lines; margin and cash?flow improvements support the case for continued upside. Alcoa reported $1.26 EPS vs. $0.95 expected and $3.45B revenue vs. $3.28B, with higher adjusted EBITDA, stronger operating/free cash flow and reduced net debt. Alcoa Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Commodity tailwinds and volume upside: management is cashing in on higher aluminum prices and is targeting more output in 2026, which should help near?term EBITDA and FCF if prices persist. Alcoa Cashes In On Higher Aluminum Prices, Eyes More Output In 2026
• Positive Sentiment: Portfolio actions and European pricing: Alcoa expects a ~$10/ton CBAM premium uplift in Europe for 2026 and is advancing the San Ciprián restart—potential revenue/margin tailwinds if realized. Alcoa expects $10/ton CBAM premium uplift in Europe for 2026 while advancing San Ciprián restart
• Positive Sentiment: Relative industry positioning: analysts and coverage note Alcoa looks better positioned vs. peers (e.g., Ryerson) thanks to stronger demand exposure, smelter restarts and healthier balance sheet. That can support investor preference for AA over higher?leverage competitors. Alcoa vs. Ryerson: Which Aluminum Stock Should You Bet On?
• Neutral Sentiment: Full disclosure materials available: earnings call transcript, slide deck and presentation are posted—use these to drill into guidance assumptions (smelter ramps, alumina outlook, capex and FCF cadence). Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst reactions mixed: Wells Fargo raised its price target to $71 but downgraded to Equal Weight—shows upside in some models yet caution on near?term valuation/risk. (Analyst notes will influence short?term flows.) Alcoa Earnings Send Shares Lower—Buy the Dip or Wait?
• Negative Sentiment: Guidance caused a sell?the?news reaction: management signaled some near?term pressure on earnings and FCF, which appears to be the proximate cause of the post?earnings pullback. That raises short?term uncertainty for investors focused on immediate cash generation. Alcoa Earnings Send Shares Lower—Buy the Dip or Wait?
• Negative Sentiment: Operational uncertainty at specific assets: Alcoa won’t commit to restarting an Indiana smelter line, leaving some volume upside contingent on future decisions and timing. Alcoa Still Won’t Commit to Restarting Indiana Smelter Line
• Negative Sentiment: Sell ratings persist: J.P. Morgan reaffirmed a sell rating, signaling some sell?side skepticism that could weigh on sentiment until guidance detail and execution are clearer. J.P. Morgan Reaffirms Their Sell Rating on Alcoa (AA)

Alcoa Company Profile

Alcoa Corporation is a global industry leader in the production and management of aluminum, offering an integrated value chain that spans bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminum smelting and the fabrication of value-added products. The company’s operations are organized into segments that include raw material extraction, chemical processing and the manufacture of metal mill products and engineered solutions.

Alcoa’s product portfolio serves diverse end markets such as aerospace, automotive, packaging, construction, electrical and industrial applications.