KeyCorp Weighs in on Vistra’s Q3 Earnings (NYSE:VST)

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) – Equities research analysts at KeyCorp issued their Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Vistra in a research report issued to clients and investors on Wednesday, November 4th. KeyCorp analyst S. Karp forecasts that the company will post earnings per share of $3.06 for the quarter. KeyCorp has a “Sector Weight” rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Vistra’s current full-year earnings is $8.92 per share. KeyCorp also issued estimates for Vistra’s FY2026 earnings at $8.04 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $11.01 EPS.

Vistra (NYSE:VST) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Friday, November 6th. The company reported $3.25 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.98 by $0.27. The business had revenue of $6.35 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.03 billion. Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%.

A number of other analysts have also weighed in on VST. Sanford C. Bernstein reiterated an “outperform” rating and issued a $181.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a research note on Thursday, October 1st. Seaport Research Partners reduced their price objective on Vistra from $226.00 to $202.00 in a research note on Monday. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce lowered their target price on Vistra from $201.00 to $181.00 and set an “outperformer” rating on the stock in a report on Wednesday, October 28th. Wells Fargo & Company reduced their target price on shares of Vistra from $212.00 to $198.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, October 28th. Finally, Siebert Williams Shank assumed coverage on Vistra in a research report on Friday, October 2nd. They set a “buy” rating and a $202.00 price objective for the company. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have issued a Buy rating, three have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $205.00.

Vistra Stock Performance

Shares of VST stock opened at $113.00 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a quick ratio of 0.87. Vistra has a 1 year low of $110.89 and a 1 year high of $196.80. The firm has a market capitalization of $37.93 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.09 and a beta of 1.37. The business has a fifty day moving average of $144.19 and a 200 day moving average of $152.81.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Apella Capital LLC increased its position in Vistra by 2.6% in the 3rd quarter. Apella Capital LLC now owns 2,728 shares of the company’s stock valued at $377,000 after acquiring an additional 69 shares during the period. Ashton Thomas Securities LLC grew its stake in shares of Vistra by 2.3% during the 3rd quarter. Ashton Thomas Securities LLC now owns 3,400 shares of the company’s stock worth $470,000 after purchasing an additional 75 shares during the period. Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc. increased its holdings in Vistra by 5.3% in the second quarter. Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc. now owns 1,728 shares of the company’s stock valued at $274,000 after buying an additional 87 shares in the last quarter. Portfolio Design Labs LLC boosted its position in Vistra by 1.2% during the second quarter. Portfolio Design Labs LLC now owns 7,348 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,166,000 after purchasing an additional 87 shares in the last quarter. Finally, First National Bank of Hutchinson grew its stake in Vistra by 2.0% in the 1st quarter. First National Bank of Hutchinson now owns 4,521 shares of the company’s stock valued at $680,000 after acquiring an additional 90 shares during the last quarter. 90.88% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In other Vistra news, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 22,222 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, October 6th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.14, for a total value of $3,558,631.08. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president owned 308,915 shares in the company, valued at $49,469,648.10. This represents a 6.71% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO James Burke bought 4,465 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was purchased at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at approximately $155,044,108. This trade represents a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this purchase is available in the SEC filing. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 31st. Investors of record on Tuesday, December 22nd will be issued a $0.2310 dividend. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.8%. This is a boost from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, December 22nd. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.54%.

Key Vistra News

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BMO Capital Markets kept an “outperform” rating and set a $188 price target, although it lowered the target from $210. That target implies considerable upside from the $113 reference price. BMO Capital Markets rating
• Positive Sentiment: Options-market analysis cited by Barchart suggests shares could recover some recent losses after the quarterly update, though this is an expectation rather than a guarantee. Barchart options analysis
• Neutral Sentiment: Vistra is scheduled to report Q3 results before the market opens on Nov. 6. Analysts expect improved year-over-year revenue, making the report and management’s outlook potential near-term catalysts. Analyst expectations ahead of earnings
• Negative Sentiment: KeyCorp cut its rating from “overweight” to “sector weight.” Its estimates of $8.04 EPS for FY2026 are below the cited $8.92 consensus, reinforcing concerns about earnings expectations. KeyBanc downgrade rationale
• Negative Sentiment: Texas election results have raised concerns about potential policy changes affecting data-center growth and future electricity demand. The uncertainty is weighing on Vistra’s growth outlook, even as much of its near-term output is hedged. Texas election and Vistra outlook
• Negative Sentiment: Scotiabank lowered its FY2027 EPS forecast to $9.95 from $11.16, while retaining a “sector outperform” rating and $189 target. Separately, unusually heavy put-option buying indicates increased demand for downside protection. Vistra analyst and trading updates

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated energy company based in Irving, Texas. The company operates across electricity generation, power distribution support, energy marketing and retail electricity sales, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers primarily in the United States.

Vistra owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power generation and energy storage facilities. Its assets include natural gas, nuclear, coal and renewable generation, as well as battery storage projects.