Vistra (NYSE:VST) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $1.67 EPS

Vistra (NYSE:VST) announced its earnings results on Friday. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $2.43 by ($1.67), FiscalAI reports. The business had revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a return on equity of 105.64% and a net margin of 11.52%.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra’s conference call:

• Positive Sentiment: Vistra reported second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up more than 30% year over year, driven by stronger generation results, favorable hedging, higher PJM capacity revenue, asset contributions, and solid retail performance.
• Positive Sentiment: Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion–$7.6 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth of $3.925 billion–$4.725 billion, expressing confidence in achieving at least the midpoint.
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra sees sustained power-demand growth in ERCOT and PJM, including record summer peaks and continued data-center, industrial reshoring, electrification, and population-growth opportunities. The company also committed up to $1 billion to Helix Digital Infrastructure and will serve as its preferred power partner.
• Negative Sentiment: Lower ERCOT forward prices are creating a headwind for 2027, and management said the current outlook trends toward the lower end of its $7.4 billion–$7.8 billion Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range, although PJM strength, hedging, and nuclear production tax credits provide offsets.
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra expects more than $10 billion of available cash in 2026–2027, with approximately $3 billion allocated to shareholder returns and $4.5 billion–$5 billion earmarked for growth investments. Management retains flexibility to expand buybacks beyond the remaining $1.2 billion authorization and is pursuing additional investment-grade credit upgrades.

Vistra Stock Down 0.5%

Shares of VST traded down $0.73 during mid-day trading on Friday, reaching $140.65. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 7,848,854 shares, compared to its average volume of 4,769,509. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.51, a current ratio of 0.90 and a quick ratio of 0.79. Vistra has a 12-month low of $132.66 and a 12-month high of $219.82. The stock has a market cap of $47.42 billion, a PE ratio of 23.56 and a beta of 1.41. The company’s 50 day moving average is $154.94 and its 200 day moving average is $157.09.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be issued a $0.23 dividend. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.7%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, September 21st. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 15.41%.

Key Headlines Impacting Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% year over year to $1.767 billion, supported by strong power-generation performance and elevated demand during periods of extreme heat. Management reaffirmed its full-year financial guidance. Vistra Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Analysts continue to view Vistra as a potential beneficiary of rising electricity consumption from artificial-intelligence infrastructure and data centers, including potential large-scale projects in the United States. Its generation fleet, nuclear assets and clean-power investments could support longer-term demand. Vistra Is Seen As A Beneficiary Of Rising AI Power Demand
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.23 per share and a semiannual dividend on its Series A preferred stock, reinforcing the company’s income-return strategy. Is Vistra’s Bigger Dividend and AI Power Demand Story Altering The Investment Case
• Neutral Sentiment: Before the release, expectations were elevated because estimates called for sharply higher revenue and EPS, driven by clean-power demand, hedging activity, nuclear generation and contributions from the Lotus business. Vistra to Report Q2 Earnings
• Negative Sentiment: Second-quarter EPS was $0.76 versus the $2.43 analyst consensus, while revenue of $4.02 billion fell well short of the $5.46 billion estimate. Vistra Earnings Data
• Negative Sentiment: GAAP net income was $305 million and included a $472 million unrealized loss on commodity hedges that are expected to settle in future years. The hedge-related loss caused quarterly profit to slip even as the underlying power business strengthened. Vistra Quarterly Profit Slips on Hedging Losses

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, Director Paul M. Barbas sold 244 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $153.00, for a total value of $37,332.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 53,006 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $8,109,918. This represents a 0.46% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CAO Margaret Montemayor sold 4,600 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, June 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total transaction of $736,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief accounting officer owned 9,760 shares in the company, valued at $1,561,600. This represents a 32.03% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders have sold 41,588 shares of company stock worth $6,739,227 in the last three months. 0.92% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Mcguire Capital Advisors Inc. acquired a new position in Vistra in the fourth quarter valued at $28,000. Kemnay Advisory Services Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Vistra during the fourth quarter worth about $30,000. Strive Financial Group LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Vistra during the fourth quarter worth about $33,000. IFC & Insurance Marketing Inc. purchased a new stake in shares of Vistra in the 4th quarter valued at about $35,000. Finally, Strive Asset Management LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Vistra in the 3rd quarter valued at about $38,000. 90.88% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

Several research firms have commented on VST. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price target on shares of Vistra and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 16th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced their price objective on Vistra from $240.00 to $231.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, April 30th. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $190.00 target price on shares of Vistra in a report on Thursday, May 21st. Raymond James Financial set a $208.00 target price on Vistra in a research note on Monday, April 27th. Finally, Scotiabank upped their price target on Vistra from $293.00 to $298.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Wednesday, July 15th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have given a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $229.88.

About Vistra

Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower?carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.

Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.