Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 1.270-1.320 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 1.220. The company issued revenue guidance of $3.0 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q3 2026 guidance to 0.350-0.370 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Performance

Geo Group stock opened at $31.28 on Thursday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a current ratio of 1.75. The company has a market capitalization of $4.18 billion, a PE ratio of 15.88, a P/E/G ratio of 1.86 and a beta of 0.79. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $28.96 and a 200-day moving average price of $21.56. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.51 and a fifty-two week high of $32.25.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%. As a group, equities analysts forecast that Geo Group will post 1.2 earnings per share for the current year.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

GEO has been the subject of several research reports. Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 9th. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. Finally, Northland Securities upped their target price on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Friday, June 26th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have given a Buy rating and one has assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $36.50.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.29 analyst consensus. The company also posted a 10.0% net margin and 9.43% return on equity, indicating solid profitability. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year 2026 guidance was raised above consensus. GEO forecast earnings of $1.27-$1.32 per share, versus the $1.22 consensus estimate, while revenue guidance of $3.0-$3.1 billion was at or slightly above expectations. The improved outlook suggests management expects continued demand for detention, processing, reentry and electronic-monitoring services.
• Positive Sentiment: Third-quarter earnings guidance also exceeded expectations. GEO projected earnings of $0.35-$0.37 per share, ahead of the $0.30 consensus. Revenue guidance of $755 million-$805 million brackets the $765.1 million consensus, with the midpoint modestly above expectations.
• Positive Sentiment: Potential facility expansion could support future revenue. GEO is posting dozens of jobs as ICE prepares to open a new detention facility in Colorado, signaling potential additional operating activity and capacity. GEO Group posts dozens of jobs as ICE prepares to open new Colorado detention facility
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter guidance fell below expectations. GEO forecast fourth-quarter earnings of $0.28-$0.31 per share, below the $0.33 consensus estimate. This may raise concerns about near-term earnings volatility or higher operating costs.
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and operational scrutiny remains a risk. Lawmakers have demanded answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center. Negative developments could increase compliance costs or create reputational and contract risks. Lawmakers question ICE and GEO Group over alleged violations

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Invesco Ltd. grew its holdings in Geo Group by 41.2% in the fourth quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 1,872,184 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $30,180,000 after purchasing an additional 545,814 shares during the period. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV raised its stake in shares of Geo Group by 19.3% during the 4th quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $188,000 after buying an additional 1,882 shares during the period. XTX Topco Ltd purchased a new position in shares of Geo Group during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $2,311,000. Twinbeech Capital LP purchased a new position in shares of Geo Group during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $2,320,000. Finally, Saba Capital Management L.P. grew its stake in Geo Group by 34.8% in the 4th quarter. Saba Capital Management L.P. now owns 167,007 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $2,692,000 after acquiring an additional 43,093 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.