Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Wednesday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 1.150-1.250 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 1.190. The company issued revenue guidance of $3.0 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q2 2026 guidance to 0.250-0.290 EPS.

Analyst Ratings Changes

A number of brokerages have recently weighed in on GEO. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Friday, March 27th. Wall Street Zen lowered Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, February 28th. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Finally, JonesTrading decreased their target price on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Friday, March 20th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $34.50.

Geo Group Stock Down 3.6%

NYSE GEO traded down $0.80 during trading on Thursday, reaching $21.40. 1,064,476 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 2,246,081. The stock has a market cap of $2.84 billion, a P/E ratio of 11.76 and a beta of 0.82. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10, a quick ratio of 2.01 and a current ratio of 2.01. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $16.91 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $16.44. Geo Group has a 1 year low of $12.51 and a 1 year high of $27.90.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.19 by $0.10. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The company had revenue of $705.21 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $688.89 million. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned $0.14 EPS. Geo Group’s revenue for the quarter was up 16.6% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS. On average, equities research analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.18 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Insider Buying and Selling at Geo Group

In other news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, March 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total value of $101,086.92. Following the completion of the sale, the director directly owned 27,062 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $412,424.88. The trade was a 19.69% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Insiders own 4.98% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 earnings beat and raised FY guidance — GEO posted adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.29 vs. consensus $0.19 and raised FY 2026 EPS guidance to $1.15–$1.25, which drove strong investor enthusiasm. Business Wire
• Positive Sentiment: Revenue and margins showing meaningful growth — Q1 revenue of ~$705M topped estimates and was up ~16.6% year?over?year, supporting the EPS beat and improving cash?flow visibility. MarketBeat Earnings Summary
• Neutral Sentiment: Company projects 2026 revenue of $2.95B–$3.1B and says it is discussing potential ICE facility sales — this could be portfolio optimization but also signals possible asset disposals that may change future revenue composition. Seeking Alpha
• Negative Sentiment: Q2 revenue and EPS guidance slightly mixed vs. consensus — Q2 EPS guided to $0.25–$0.29 and revenue to $715M–$725M, which sits marginally below some street estimates and may temper near?term expectations. Guidance Details
• Negative Sentiment: Negative operational and reputational headlines — a local report flagged abuses at a Washington ICE facility, adding public?relations and regulatory risk that can pressure valuation for companies tied to immigration detention. Yakima Herald
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and public backlash mentioned on the call — management publicly complained about lawsuits over detention conditions, which highlights litigation risk and can weigh on investor sentiment. AOL
• Negative Sentiment: Industry reputational spillovers affecting counterparties — reports of bank customers pulling money from lenders tied to ICE work underscore broader political and consumer risks to firms in this sector. Banking Dive

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Several institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its position in Geo Group by 245.1% during the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its position in Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares during the period. Militia Capital Partners LP increased its position in Geo Group by 122.6% during the 2nd quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $165,000 after purchasing an additional 3,800 shares during the period. Guggenheim Capital LLC acquired a new position in Geo Group during the 4th quarter worth approximately $174,000. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV increased its position in Geo Group by 19.3% during the 4th quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $188,000 after purchasing an additional 1,882 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.