STUB (NYSE:STUB) Issues Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $1.55 EPS

STUB (NYSE:STUB) announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday. The company reported ($1.56) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of ($0.01) by ($1.55), FiscalAI reports. The firm had revenue of $449.17 million during the quarter. The firm’s revenue was down 15.8% on a year-over-year basis.

Here are the key takeaways from STUB’s conference call:

• StubHub’s core resale business delivered $9.2B GMS in 2025 (up 6% YoY; +18% ex-Eras), reached ~50% share of the North American secondary market, and guided 2026 GMS to $9.9–$10.1B with adjusted EBITDA of $400–$420M.
• Management is shifting direct issuance from a business-development-led approach to a product-led, AI-enabled self-serve strategy in 2026, prioritizing long-term scalable adoption over near-term revenue.
• Advertising/sponsored-listing experiments began in Q4 with modest early revenue; management expects small contribution (“tens of millions”) in 2026 while continuing product iteration before scaling.
• Financials strengthened—management repaid ~$900M (~35% of debt), ended 2025 with ~$1.2B in cash (~$494M net of seller payables) and reported nearly 70% free cash flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA.
• Regulatory risk remains a headwind—management highlights that ~10% of 2025 GMS came from high-demand concert reseller activity and says potential policy changes could materially affect subsets of the market, prompting increased government relations efforts.

STUB Price Performance

Shares of NYSE STUB traded down $0.39 during mid-day trading on Friday, reaching $8.52. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 1,481,839 shares, compared to its average volume of 3,710,924. The company has a quick ratio of 1.14, a current ratio of 1.14 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98. The stock has a market capitalization of $3.13 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of -14.20. STUB has a 1-year low of $8.06 and a 1-year high of $27.89.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

A number of analysts have recently weighed in on the stock. Wedbush reiterated a “neutral” rating and issued a $10.00 price objective (down from $18.00) on shares of STUB in a research note on Thursday. Citigroup raised STUB from a “sell” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research report on Wednesday, February 18th. Weiss Ratings assumed coverage on STUB in a report on Wednesday, January 14th. They issued a “sell (d-)” rating for the company. Craig Hallum started coverage on STUB in a research note on Thursday, January 29th. They issued a “hold” rating and a $12.00 target price on the stock. Finally, Wall Street Zen cut STUB from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Saturday, February 21st. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, four have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, STUB currently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $11.40.

Key Stories Impacting STUB

Here are the key news stories impacting STUB this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Some analysts and commentators view the post-drop valuation and 2026 rebound prospects as more attractive — citing Direct Issuance technology and live-event tailwinds that could boost profitability. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Oppenheimer kept an Outperform rating (but cut its target), showing at least one major firm still sees upside after the sell-off. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Company published full Q4 materials (earnings release, call transcript and slide deck) for investors to assess guidance, direct-issuance traction and operating details. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Broader coverage assessed valuation after the share-price decline — useful context but not an immediate catalyst. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Disappointing Q4 results: adjusted EPS missed materially and revenue fell ~15.8% YoY to ~$449M; GAAP loss included a ~$492.9M nonrecurring tax provision that produced a very large net loss. Those fundamentals guided the immediate sell-off. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst downgrades and price-target cuts followed the print — Wedbush and J.P. Morgan moved to Neutral and lowered targets (Wedbush PT cut to $10 from $18; JPM PT cut to $10 from $22), increasing selling pressure. Read More. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction: shares hit record lows after the report, and unusual put buying rose sharply — signals of amplified short-term bearish sentiment and volatility. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Reduced visibility on growth from the direct ticket-issuance business and a high net leverage level (~4.5x cited by analysts) are ongoing risk factors flagged by commentators and some analysts. Read More.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the company. CWM LLC grew its position in STUB by 56,638.1% in the 4th quarter. CWM LLC now owns 276,882 shares of the company’s stock valued at $3,746,000 after acquiring an additional 276,394 shares in the last quarter. Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH purchased a new stake in STUB during the 4th quarter worth about $1,044,000. Garner Asset Management Corp acquired a new position in STUB in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $92,000. International Assets Investment Management LLC acquired a new position in shares of STUB in the 4th quarter valued at $149,000. Finally, Baader Bank Aktiengesellschaft purchased a new position in shares of STUB during the fourth quarter worth about $1,015,000.

About STUB

Stubhub Holdings Inc, through its subsidiaries, provides an online marketplace to buy and sell tickets for sports, concerts, theater, festivals and other live events. Stubhub Holdings Inc is based in NEW YORK.